Skip to main content
Synthos Research
  • Home
  • Research
  • Predictions
  • Gap Board
  • Q&A
  • Portfolios
  • Pricing
  • Home
  • Research
  • Predictions
  • Gap Board
  • Q&A
  • Portfolios
  • Pricing
  • Verified Voices
  • Synthos One
  • Crypto
  • Knowledge Tree
  • Macro regime
  • Scorecard
  • Methodology
  • About
Sign in Subscribe

The Receipts

The Forecaster Scorecard

Everyone you follow makes predictions. Nobody checks them. We capture the calls of named investors, scientists, and macro thinkers — dated and sourced — and grade them when they mature.

What exists today

  • 12,447 dated predictions captured from the knowledge base (as of Jun 29, 2026)
  • 1,894 carry explicit time horizons — mechanically gradable as they mature
  • 0 grades published so far. We will not publish a grade before the methodology is public and fixed.

The corpus is built from public statements — podcasts, interviews, filings — each stored with the speaker, the date, the source, and the claim in structured form. That is what makes grading possible at a scale no human fact-checker can match.

The grading rules, fixed in advance

  1. Claims, never persons

    We grade what was said, with the receipt attached — respectful, dated, sourced. Never a character judgment.

  2. Verbatim or nothing

    No claim is graded unless we can source it verbatim with a date.

  3. Methodology published first

    The grading rules are public before the first edition, and they do not move after the fact.

  4. We grade ourselves

    Synthos’s own calls — including the thinkers our system weights most heavily — are graded by the same rules, misses included.

  5. Standing corrections policy

    Any graded party can dispute a grade; disputes and corrections are published on the same page as the grade.

What is coming

First public edition: February 2027

“Who was actually right?” — quarterly, free

Every tracked forecaster’s horizon-bearing calls, graded against outcomes: hit rate, notable calls, notable misses, all dated. Editions are free to read — accountability shouldn’t sit behind a paywall.

Synthos Research

Independent, AI-native investment research. Honest by policy, accessible by design.

Founded by Ari Sagherian.

Site

  • Research
  • Model portfolios
  • Forecaster Scorecard
  • How Synthos works
  • About
  • Pricing
  • How Synthos posts
  • Accessibility

Accessibility

This site is built dark and high-contrast (WCAG AAA), fully keyboard navigable, and screen-reader tested. Gains and losses are always marked with arrows and signs, never color alone. If anything here is hard to use, tell us — it will be fixed.

Disclaimer. Synthos Research is an independent research publication for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalized to your situation. Hypothetical figures are hindsight, not performance. Markets are risky; do your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. © 2026 Synthos Research.