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Regime
Macro & turbulence signal
Global fiscal/monetary space, sector rotation across all 11 SPDRs, and a Mahalanobis turbulence index that flags risk-off before the surface cracks.
Systematic
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Cross-sector cheap-for-growth screens, DCF valuations, and a base-rate clinical probability engine for biotech catalysts — the binary risk most investors ignore.
Novel
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We structure thousands of dated predictions from the people you follow — and track who is actually right. Finally, an answer to "whose calls should I trust?"
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A real-money model portfolio
The Synthos Flagship — my own money, public positions, tracked live against the S&P from July 4. No backtests. If the research has an edge, it shows up here, in the open.
Synthos Model Portfolios
Honest read: the “hypothetical YTD” below is what today's holdings would have returned if held since Jan 1 — it is survivorship-inflated hindsight, NOT a track record or advice (we're holding 2026's survivors). S&P 500 YTD: +9.5%. Macro read: neutral. Real, forward, real-money performance is tracked live from launch. Not investment advice.
Category portfoliosAI
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +156.1% · S&P +146.6 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 15.2% |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 14.4% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 10.1% |
| BB | BlackBerry Limited | 10.1% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 8.3% |
| COMP | Compass, Inc. | 8.2% |
| SITM | SiTime Corporation | 8.1% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | 7.5% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 6.6% |
| KSPI | Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz | 4.4% |
| MXL | MaxLinear, Inc. | 4.2% |
| RBRK | Rubrik, Inc. | 2.7% |
Crypto
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +24.4% · S&P +14.9 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 40.2% |
| RIOT | Riot Platforms, Inc. | 19.8% |
| BTCUSD | Bitcoin USD | 5.0% |
| ETHUSD | Ethereum USD | 5.0% |
| BNBUSD | BNB USD | 5.0% |
| XRPUSD | XRP USD | 5.0% |
| SOLUSD | Solana USD | 5.0% |
| PEPEAIUSD | PepeAI USD | 5.0% |
| TRXUSD | TRON USD | 5.0% |
| GFARM2USD | Gains Farm USD | 5.0% |
Biotech
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +54.2% · S&P +44.7 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S | 15.7% |
| CLOV | Clover Health Investments, Corp. | 15.6% |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics, Inc. | 14.4% |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics, Inc. | 12.3% |
| WAT | Waters Corporation | 10.4% |
| AXSM | Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | 8.8% |
| HNGE | Hinge Health, Inc. | 7.9% |
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 3.7% |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT, Inc. | 3.6% |
| AMN | AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. | 3.1% |
| PRVA | Privia Health Group, Inc. | 2.4% |
| MDGL | Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.1% |
Energy
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +44.9% · S&P +35.4 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 15.3% |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 14.4% |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | 14.0% |
| VNOM | Viper Energy, Inc. | 12.6% |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | 11.7% |
| STRL | Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | 7.3% |
| SM | SM Energy Company | 6.6% |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 6.6% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 4.8% |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | 2.9% |
| SUNC | SunocoCorp LLC | 2.1% |
| LPG | Dorian LPG Ltd. | 1.7% |
Commodities
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +23.4% · S&P +13.8 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| SQM | Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A | 16.1% |
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp. | 16.1% |
| SSRM | SSR Mining Inc. | 16.1% |
| AUGO | Aura Minerals | 16.1% |
| TGB | Trekor Metals Limited | 10.8% |
| ECVT | Ecovyst Inc. | 6.3% |
| CGAU | Centerra Gold Inc. | 4.9% |
| ESI | Element Solutions Inc | 4.1% |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | 2.9% |
| ODC | Oil-Dri Corporation of America | 2.7% |
| KWR | Quaker Chemical Corporation | 2.5% |
| CC | The Chemours Company | 1.5% |
Macro
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +6.3% · S&P -3.2 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 ETF | 20.0% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold | 20.0% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | 15.0% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) | 15.0% |
| QQQ | Nasdaq-100 ETF | 15.0% |
| DBC | Commodities Index | 15.0% |
Conservative
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +57.9% · S&P +48.4 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold | 15.0% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) | 9.0% |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 6.6% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 6.6% |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 6.6% |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | 6.3% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | 6.0% |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 5.8% |
| VNOM | Viper Energy, Inc. | 5.0% |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 4.9% |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | 4.1% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 3.2% |
| BB | BlackBerry Limited | 3.2% |
| PLGO | Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit | 3.2% |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S | 2.8% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 2.1% |
| GOLD | Gold.com, Inc. | 2.1% |
| COMP | Compass, Inc. | 2.0% |
| SITM | SiTime Corporation | 2.0% |
| SQM | Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A | 1.9% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | 1.6% |
Balanced
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +70.6% · S&P +61.1 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 10.1% |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 9.2% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold | 9.0% |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 8.6% |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | 8.1% |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 7.3% |
| VNOM | Viper Energy, Inc. | 6.3% |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 6.1% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) | 5.4% |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | 5.0% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 3.8% |
| BB | BlackBerry Limited | 3.8% |
| PLGO | Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit | 3.8% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | 3.6% |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S | 3.2% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 2.3% |
| GOLD | Gold.com, Inc. | 2.3% |
| COMP | Compass, Inc. | 2.2% |
Aggressive
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +79.8% · S&P +70.2 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 14.9% |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 11.7% |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 10.9% |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | 10.1% |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 8.9% |
| VNOM | Viper Energy, Inc. | 7.5% |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 7.3% |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | 5.7% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold | 4.0% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 4.0% |
| BB | BlackBerry Limited | 4.0% |
| PLGO | Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit | 3.9% |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S | 3.2% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) | 2.4% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | 1.6% |
Degen
Hypothetical YTD (current holdings): +83.5% · S&P +74.0 pts
| Ticker | Company / Asset | Alloc |
|---|---|---|
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 22.2% |
| BB | BlackBerry Limited | 19.9% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 14.0% |
| KSPI | Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz | 10.2% |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 7.4% |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | 6.6% |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology Incorporated | 5.9% |
| SLAB | Silicon Laboratories Inc. | 4.1% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 4.1% |
| ADI | Analog Devices, Inc. | 3.5% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold | 1.0% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) | 0.6% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | 0.4% |
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Disclaimer. Synthos Research is an independent research publication for
educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice, a
solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalized to
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professional. The author may hold positions in securities discussed.