Live from the research funnel
The Synthos Flagship & the model portfolios
The Flagship — our Balanced portfolio — leads. Around it: the risk tiers and six sector portfolios, rebuilt from the latest research. Holdings and weights are fully public — the reasoning behind them is the membership.
Read this before the numbers
The “hypothetical YTD” figures and charts on this page are what today’s holdings would have returned if you had held them since January 1. You didn’t, and neither did we. That is survivorship-inflated hindsight — not a track record, and not advice.
Real, forward, real-money performance is tracked in public from the Flagship’s public launch (date to be announced). Until then, the only honest benchmark on this page is the S&P 500 at +10.2% YTD — printed on every chart and next to every figure, at the same size.
— Ari Sagherian, founder. This standard is permanent. Data as of 2026-07-06.The Flagship & its risk tiers
Balanced 18 holdings · +49.4% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upThe Flagship — the core exponential book with a moderate defensive sleeve
Balanced
Hypothetical YTD * +49.4% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company LLY offers ~18% upside to fair value (~$1,430) with the trend confirming — buy $1,055–$1,214, take profits toward $1,430, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$985). | 12.8% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL is a solid business largely reflected at ~$250 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$212. | 9.9% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR is a solid business largely reflected at ~$140 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$119. | 9.8% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Defensive sleeve: the debasement hedge — scarce, no issuer. | 9.0% |
| BKV | BKV Corporation EnergyPower · forward growth ~78%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 6.0% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) Defensive sleeve: T-bills — dry powder that still yields. | 5.4% |
Show the remaining 12 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| ARIS | Aris Mining Corporation Materials · forward growth ~74%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.3% |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.2% |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S Genomics · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.2% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE is a solid business largely reflected at ~$780 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$663. | 4.8% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating · expert conviction 1 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.6% |
| SQM | Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. Materials · forward growth ~77%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.4% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock TradFi · forward growth ~70%, accelerating · expert conviction 24 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.4% |
| PLGO | Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit TradFi · forward growth ~64%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.0% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries Deflation-tail hedge: the one asset that rallies in a bust. | 3.6% |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. DELL offers ~12% upside to fair value (~$440) with the trend confirming — buy $323–$394, take profits toward $440, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$187). | 2.9% |
| COMP | Compass, Inc. Software · forward growth ~80%, accelerating · expert conviction 5 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.3% |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~53%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.3% |
Conservative 21 holdings · +42.6% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upProven quality plus a large defensive sleeve (gold, bills, bonds)
Conservative
Hypothetical YTD * +42.6% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold Defensive sleeve: the debasement hedge — scarce, no issuer. | 15.0% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) Defensive sleeve: T-bills — dry powder that still yields. | 9.0% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company LLY offers ~18% upside to fair value (~$1,430) with the trend confirming — buy $1,055–$1,214, take profits toward $1,430, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$985). | 8.1% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL is a solid business largely reflected at ~$250 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$212. | 7.8% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR is a solid business largely reflected at ~$140 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$119. | 7.8% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries Deflation-tail hedge: the one asset that rallies in a bust. | 6.0% |
Show the remaining 15 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BKV | BKV Corporation EnergyPower · forward growth ~78%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.0% |
| ARIS | Aris Mining Corporation Materials · forward growth ~74%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.5% |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.4% |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S Genomics · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.4% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE is a solid business largely reflected at ~$780 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$663. | 4.1% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating · expert conviction 1 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 3.9% |
| SQM | Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. Materials · forward growth ~77%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 3.8% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock TradFi · forward growth ~70%, accelerating · expert conviction 24 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 3.8% |
| PLGO | Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit TradFi · forward growth ~64%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 3.6% |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. DELL offers ~12% upside to fair value (~$440) with the trend confirming — buy $323–$394, take profits toward $440, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$187). | 2.7% |
| COMP | Compass, Inc. Software · forward growth ~80%, accelerating · expert conviction 5 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.5% |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~53%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.5% |
| SSRM | SSR Mining Inc. Materials · forward growth ~47%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.0% |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~42%, accelerating · expert conviction 2 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.0% |
| AUGO | Aura Minerals Materials · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 0.9% |
Aggressive 13 holdings · +83.4% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upConcentrated, early, and volatile — high-momentum names still proving out, minimal hedge. Expect drawdowns the other tiers won't have.
Aggressive
Hypothetical YTD * +83.4% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company LLY offers ~18% upside to fair value (~$1,430) with the trend confirming — buy $1,055–$1,214, take profits toward $1,430, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$985). | 31.5% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL is a solid business largely reflected at ~$250 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$212. | 25.7% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR is a solid business largely reflected at ~$140 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$119. | 12.9% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation WDC is a solid business largely reflected at ~$430 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$366. | 8.1% |
| CRCL | Circle Internet Group TradFi · forward growth ~14%, accelerating · expert conviction 5 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.0% |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation LRCX is a solid business largely reflected at ~$300 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$255. | 3.4% |
Show the remaining 7 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | Intel Corp. INTC is a solid business largely reflected at ~$95 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$81. | 3.0% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE is a solid business largely reflected at ~$780 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$663. | 2.9% |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~42%, accelerating · expert conviction 2 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.8% |
| BA | The Boeing Company BA is a solid business largely reflected at ~$235 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$200. | 2.7% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Defensive sleeve: the debasement hedge — scarce, no issuer. | 1.0% |
| BIL | T-Bills (cash) Defensive sleeve: T-bills — dry powder that still yields. | 0.6% |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries Deflation-tail hedge: the one asset that rallies in a bust. | 0.4% |
Sector portfolios
AI 12 holdings · +164.1% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upThe buildout bottlenecks: optics, memory, timing, power.
AI
The buildout bottlenecks: optics, memory, timing, power.
Hypothetical YTD * +164.1% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL is a solid business largely reflected at ~$250 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$212. | 15.9% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR is a solid business largely reflected at ~$140 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$119. | 15.9% |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 11.6% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE is a solid business largely reflected at ~$780 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$663. | 11.0% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating · expert conviction 1 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 10.5% |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. DELL offers ~12% upside to fair value (~$440) with the trend confirming — buy $323–$394, take profits toward $440, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$187). | 7.9% |
Show the remaining 6 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation SNDK is a solid business largely reflected at ~$984 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$836. | 7.6% |
| COMP | Compass, Inc. Software · forward growth ~80%, accelerating · expert conviction 5 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.3% |
| SITM | SiTime Corporation Compute · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 5.1% |
| SANM | Sanmina Corporation Compute · forward growth ~74%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.7% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation WDC is a solid business largely reflected at ~$430 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$366. | 2.4% |
| MXL | MaxLinear, Inc. Compute · forward growth ~40%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.1% |
Biotech 12 holdings · +40.8% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upDiseases of aging, rare disease, and the tools that serve them.
Biotech
Diseases of aging, rare disease, and the tools that serve them.
Hypothetical YTD * +40.8% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company LLY offers ~18% upside to fair value (~$1,430) with the trend confirming — buy $1,055–$1,214, take profits toward $1,430, and exit on a close below the 200-day (~$985). | 20.8% |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma A/S Genomics · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 17.1% |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~53%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 12.0% |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~42%, accelerating · expert conviction 2 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 11.0% |
| CLOV | Clover Health Investments, Corp. Genomics · forward growth ~51%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 10.5% |
| AXSM | Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~54%, accelerating · expert conviction 2 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 8.5% |
Show the remaining 6 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| WAT | Waters Corporation WAT is a solid business largely reflected at ~$400 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$340. | 8.0% |
| HNGE | Hinge Health, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~40%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 3.6% |
| MDGL | Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~56%, accelerating · expert conviction 2 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.9% |
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~27%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.1% |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT, Inc. Genomics · forward growth ~5%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.8% |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health Corporation Genomics · forward growth ~16%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.7% |
Energy 12 holdings · +39.1% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upThe datacenter power buildout, gas, and grid infrastructure.
Energy
The datacenter power buildout, gas, and grid infrastructure.
Hypothetical YTD * +39.1% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BKV | BKV Corporation EnergyPower · forward growth ~78%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.1% |
| SUN | Sunoco LP EnergyPower · forward growth ~73%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 10.1% |
| SM | SM Energy Company EnergyPower · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 9.8% |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. EnergyPower · forward growth ~76%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 9.8% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. EnergyPower · forward growth ~34%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 9.4% |
| SUNC | SunocoCorp LLC EnergyPower · forward growth ~64%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 9.1% |
Show the remaining 6 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LPG | Dorian LPG Ltd. EnergyPower · forward growth ~24%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 8.2% |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC EnergyPower · forward growth ~70%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 7.3% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. EnergyPower · forward growth ~25%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 7.0% |
| VG | Venture Global, Inc. EnergyPower · forward growth ~30%, accelerating · expert conviction 1 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 6.9% |
| STRL | Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. EnergyPower · forward growth ~52%, accelerating · expert conviction 3 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.0% |
| GLNG | Golar LNG Limited EnergyPower · forward growth ~10%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.4% |
Commodities 12 holdings · +25.5% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upMetals, miners, and the materials the buildout consumes.
Commodities
Metals, miners, and the materials the buildout consumes.
Hypothetical YTD * +25.5% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| ARIS | Aris Mining Corporation Materials · forward growth ~74%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.9% |
| SQM | Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. Materials · forward growth ~77%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.9% |
| SSRM | SSR Mining Inc. Materials · forward growth ~47%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.9% |
| AUGO | Aura Minerals Materials · forward growth ~80%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.9% |
| TGB | Trekor Metals Limited Materials · forward growth ~63%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 10.0% |
| ECVT | Ecovyst Inc. Materials · forward growth ~34%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 6.3% |
Show the remaining 6 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| CGAU | Centerra Gold Inc. Materials · forward growth ~25%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.2% |
| ESI | Element Solutions Inc Materials · forward growth ~35%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 4.0% |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. Materials · forward growth ~1%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.3% |
| ODC | Oil-Dri Corporation of America Materials — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.1% |
| KWR | Quaker Chemical Corporation Materials · forward growth ~6%, accelerating — surfaced by the forward screen. | 2.0% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. Materials · forward growth ~8%, accelerating · expert conviction 4 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.6% |
Crypto 13 holdings · -0.8% down YTD vs S&P +10.2% upDigital assets and the miners and infrastructure behind them.
Crypto
Digital assets and the miners and infrastructure behind them.
Hypothetical YTD * -0.8% down
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR | Strategy Inc MSTR is a solid business largely reflected at ~$105 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$89. | 16.3% |
| IREN | IREN Limited TradFi · forward growth ~46%, accelerating · expert conviction 7 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.3% |
| RIOT | Riot Platforms, Inc. TradFi · forward growth ~3%, accelerating · expert conviction 1 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 16.3% |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD is a solid business largely reflected at ~$118 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$100. | 9.1% |
| BTCUSD | Bitcoin USD The liquidity call's purest expression — scarce, non-sovereign. | 5.0% |
| SOLUSD | Solana USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
Show the remaining 7 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| ETHUSD | Ethereum USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
| BNBUSD | BNB USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
| XRPUSD | XRP USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
| DOGEUSD | Dogecoin USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
| TRXUSD | TRON USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
| ADAUSD | Cardano USD Surfaced by the forward-acceleration screen. | 5.0% |
| GLXY | Galaxy Digital TradFi · forward growth ~-24%, accelerating · expert conviction 3 — surfaced by the forward screen. | 1.9% |
Macro 9 holdings · +2.6% up YTD vs S&P +10.2% upThe tactical cross-asset regime book — hedged, not heroic.
Macro
The tactical cross-asset regime book — hedged, not heroic.
Hypothetical YTD * +2.6% up
S&P 500 YTD +10.2% up
| Ticker | Company · why it’s here | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ | Nasdaq-100 ETF Growth beta: the exponential index as a tactical sleeve. | 20.0% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Defensive sleeve: the debasement hedge — scarce, no issuer. | 18.0% |
| SPY | S&P 500 ETF Core beta: the benchmark itself as a tactical sleeve. | 16.0% |
| BTCUSD | Bitcoin The liquidity call's purest expression — scarce, non-sovereign. | 12.0% |
| DBC | Commodities Index Broad commodities: the supply-underinvestment thesis in one line. | 10.0% |
| IEF | 7-10yr Treasuries Duration ballast, intermediate — less rate risk than the long end. | 10.0% |
Show the remaining 3 holdings
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries Deflation-tail hedge: the one asset that rallies in a bust. | 5.0% |
| SLV | Silver Defensive sleeve: silver — the hard-asset call's higher-beta sibling. | 5.0% |
| UUP | US Dollar Bull Dollar hedge: the milkshake side of the currency debate. | 4.0% |
* Hypothetical: today’s weights applied to each holding’s year-to-date return. See the note above — this is hindsight, not performance. Tickers link to the full deep dive where one exists. Data as of 2026-07-06. Not investment advice.
The real-money track record
Live at launch — date to be announced
Tracked in public, up or down
From its public launch (date to be announced) the Flagship is funded with real money. Every position, every return, published here against the S&P 500 — on schedule, whether the number is good or bad. Zero days of history exist today, so none is shown. When the live number exists, it becomes the only headline figure on this page and the hypotheticals above are retired to a footnote.
Disclaimer. Model portfolios are research output, not investment
advice, and are not personalized to your situation. Hypothetical figures are
hindsight. Do your own due diligence.